Unravelling
Complexity
What we do
POLDER creates a collaborative space where stakeholders and researchers from various academic fields jointly gain deep and encompassing insights into policymaking, addressing urgent societal challenges. We equip stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of complex problems by using theories and tools from complexity science, thus driving positive policy impacts.
Methodology
Our novel approach builds upon complexity theory and multidisciplinary co-creation in order to help policymakers unravel the complexity of societal challenges.
Together with experts and policymakers, we map the causal relations underlying the societal challenges. We translate this into computational models that can be used to explore what-if scenarios and simulate interventions.
This unique combination of computational techniques and co-creation allows thorough exploration of potential policy interventions. Critically, this helps reveal and avoid potential unintended consequences of policy, thereby helping to make better decisions in an increasingly interconnected and rapidly changing world.
Complexity Theory
Computational modelling
Participatory model building
Simulations & policy scenarios
Methodology
To face our current and future challenges, we need to understand how to navigate a complex world, including how to detect early warning signals, how to increase resilience, and how to (responsibly and effectively) intervene in complex adaptive systems. The POLDER methodology provides policymakers with insights to navigate increasingly complex landscapes and make better-informed decisions, reducing uncertainty and increasing the impact of policy interventions.
POLDER makes fundamental knowledge and research methodologies from Complexity science applicable to real-world problems. Complexity science studies all kinds of coupled processes, in which feedback mechanisms lead to nonlinear systemic responses. It brings together knowledge from different disciplines (e.g., natural and engineering sciences, statistics, economics, behavioural and social sciences, law, ethics, public administration) and then uses mathematical and computational methods to describe how systems organize themselves. I.e., how small disturbances can multiply rapidly, and how interventions can lead to completely unintended effects, cascades, tipping points and even catastrophic collapse. By mapping the dynamics of the underlying intertwined processes, and then using simulation methods to investigate various what-if scenarios, new avenues of policymaking can be explored.
Complexity theory
At the core of POLDER’s methodology is complexity theory, which studies how simple interactions among components can lead to complex, emergent behaviors in systems. In complexity theory, we delve into the properties of non-linear dynamics, feedback loops, and adaptability. We focus particularly on emergent properties that are not evident when examining individual components but become apparent when looking at the system as a whole. This theoretical framework enables us to model unforeseen consequences, tipping points, and the resilience of systems.
Participatory model building
Participatory model building is the cornerstone of our methodological approach. It involves engaging policymakers, experts, and community members in the co-creation of models that reflect the complexity of real-world problems. We apply a participatory process to bring additional data and validation to our models. Moreover, this approach ensures that multiple perspectives are confronted and included, thereby enhancing the efficacy and acceptability of policy recommendations. The process can include, but is not limited to, group-model-building sessions, one-on-one interviews, surveys, reflective individual feedback, Delphi methods, and focus groups.
Computational modelling
We employ computational modelling as a tool to translate complex theories and real-world data into actionable insights. Through algorithmic processes and statistical methods, these models simulate various what-if scenarios, assess potential policy impacts, and allow for dynamic adjustments. The outcome is an interactive landscape that stakeholders can use to test and refine policies before they are enacted.
Simulations & policy scenarios
Simulation is where theory meets application. After constructing our computational models, we simulate various intervention scenarios to understand their potential impacts. These simulated interventions serve as virtual policy ‘test runs’, enabling policymakers to assess outcomes without the risks associated with real-world implementation. Importantly, our simulations are iterative; they can be refined using additional data or insights derived from additional participatory interactions, ensuring that our models and recommendations remain as current and accurate as possible.
About us
POLDER is a research collaborative based at the UvA Institute for Advanced Study (IAS). At its core we are building knowledge on complexity science, system dynamics and network science, made tangible through computational modelling and simulations. A community researchers works on and with the POLDER methodology, together we evolve this field within the UvA and beyond.
Mike Lees
Lead POLDER | Associate Professor Social Complexity at UvA | IAS Principle Investigator
Vítor V. Vasconcelos
Co-lead POLDER | Assistant Professor Complex Systems & Policy at UvA
Collaborations
In our research we closely collaborate with policymakers on complex challenges, uncovering previously unknown patterns and consequences at the systems level. We strive for all of our collaborations to meet to following expectations:
Unravelling complexity through multidisciplinary co-creation
Using computational tools to model and simulate policy interventions
Delivering actionable evidence-based insights for the policymaker/stakeholders
Curious how POLDER can help you navigate complex challenges?
GET IN CONTACT
Curious about our methods, work or interested in collaborating? We are looking forward to get in touch with you. Reach out by filling in the contact form and we will connect you to the right person.